The African Caribbean Pacific—European Union—Caribbean Development Bank Natural Disaster Risk Management (ACP-EU-CDB NDRM) programme is a part of the Caribbean component of the 10th European Development Fund Intra-ACP Cooperation Strategy (2008-2013) in which the ACP Group and the EU recognised the need to increase efforts with regard to ex-ante Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA).
The ACP-EU-CDB NDRM programme aims at reducing the vulnerability to long-term impacts of natural hazards, including the potential impacts of climate change (CC), thereby achieving regional and national sustainable development and poverty reduction goals in the CARIFORUM countries.
The programme comprises four Result Areas (RAs) being managed by three implementing partners, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) (RA 1); CDB (RA 2 and RA 3); and the Ministry of the Presidency of the Dominican Republic (RA 4). CDB’s components, which is where this project falls, focus on strengthening regional, national and community level capacities for mitigation, preparedness, management and coordinated response to natural hazards and the effects of CC
Background
Bush fires occur naturally and play a role in the evolution of the landscape, soil fertility and biodiversity. Over the last two decades, an increase has been observed in the incidence of bush fires during the dry season (especially January-March) and especially during periods of severe drought in Jamaica. An increase in the risk of droughts has been predicted with the occurring global warming resulting from human activities that contribute to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Thus, it can be inferred that climate variability and climate change will likely result in an ever-increasing number of drought-induced bush fires in Jamaica. Bush fires have already caused significant negative socio-economic impacts particularly on property and the agriculture and forestry sectors in Jamaica even as recently as 2015.
Currently, bush fires account for 630/05 of the total number of emergency calls to the Jamaica Fire Brigade (JFB). The Meteorological Services of Jamaica (MSJ) in collaboration with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology have worked to develop a one-to-five-day forecast tool which attempts to predict likely outbreaks of bush fires. This is done via the use of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which was developed by John Keetch and George Byram in 1968 to specifically assess forest fire potential. Although KBDI is useful for fire potential assessment, its application as an early warning tool and decision-making aid for fire management is limited as the index lacks customisation to local conditions and does not include other key factors of fire behaviour such as vegetation (sometimes termed as fuel loading) and topography. Under similar weather conditions, two zones with a different vegetation (e.g. grass versus trees) will experience a different bush fire behaviour. When weather conditions and vegetation are similar, zones with differing gradient (e.g. flat land versus sloping) will not exhibit the same bush fire behaviour. Therefore, integrating weather, vegetation and topography in the determination of the bush fire index will increase its accuracy.
The Government of Jamaica through the MSJ is developing a comprehensive Jamaican Bush Fire Warning Index to determine critical thresholds for outbreaks under different conditions for effective bush fire management. The project includes four components:
This work requires an interdisciplinary approach and inter-agency coordinated effort.
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